2.18 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Continues to Operate Stably

Soda ash market

Analysis: Today, the domestic soda ash market continues to operate steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1450-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1300-1450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1450 yuan/ton. The operation of soda ash equipment is stable, and the market operation is still at a high level; downstream demand is still weak, and the willingness to receive goods is not high; the current market is in a wait-and-see mood, lacks positive stimulation, and there is no sign of a significant rebound.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On February 18, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1512 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1505 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.21%. The intraday high was 1520 yuan/ton, the low was 1498 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1127278 lots, up 30808 lots month-on-month.

Today, the soda ash futures price fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level. The current soda ash market is facing the problem of short-term maintenance of individual soda plants on the supply side, and the current downstream demand scale has not continued to shrink. After the holiday, downstream companies mainly digested the previous raw material inventory, and there is still an expectation of rigid demand replenishment at the end of the month. In addition, market rumors have it that the photovoltaic glass market is expected to improve, and some suspended production lines will be resumed in the future, which also provides certain support for soda ash prices from the demand side. Overall, the current high inventory problem in the middle and upper reaches of soda ash still has a strong pressure on prices, but there is a mismatch expectation of supply reduction and downstream replenishment at the end of the month. Before that, the soda ash price still has certain support, and the subsequent policy expectations cannot be falsified. The soda ash price may maintain a strong fluctuation trend and wait for the expected realization.

Market Forecast

There is a maintenance plan for the supply side of the soda ash market in the future, and it is expected to maintain high volatility; while the demand of downstream industries is flat, resulting in a slow pace of enterprise shipments and no obvious improvement; in the short term, it is expected that the market will continue to be sluggish.