2.19 Soda Ash Daily Review: The overall soda ash market is stable

Soda Ash Market Analysis
Today, the overall trend of the domestic soda ash market is stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1450-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is 1300-1450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1450 yuan/ton. Today, some soda ash units in Xuzhou were shut down for maintenance. Although there was a slight reduction in the supply side, the overall situation was still fluctuating in a narrow range at a high level; the downstream market demand remained stable, with rigid demand purchases as the main demand, and the market trend was basically stable.

Futures Dynamics
According to Boduoduo data: On February 19, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1503 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 1504 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of -0.33%. The intraday high was 1512 yuan/ton, the low was 1482 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1131502 lots, up 4213 lots from the previous month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, and the overall price change was not large from the previous month. At present, the soda ash market is facing the problem of short-term maintenance of some alkali plants on the supply side, while the scale of downstream demand has not continued to shrink. After the holiday, downstream companies mainly digested the previous raw material inventory, and there is still an expectation of rigid demand replenishment at the end of the month. Overall, the current high inventory problem of soda ash in the middle and upper reaches is difficult to effectively alleviate, and the price suppression is still strong. However, there is an expectation of mismatch between supply reduction and downstream replenishment at the end of the month. Before that, the price of soda ash still has certain support, and the subsequent policy expectations cannot be falsified. The price of soda ash may maintain a strong shock and wait for the expected realization.

Market Forecast
There is a maintenance plan for the supply side of the soda ash market in the future, and it is expected to maintain high volatility; while the inventory of raw materials in the downstream industry has decreased, there is a certain expectation of replenishment, but the overall demand has not yet rebounded significantly; it is expected that the soda ash market will continue the current downturn, and there will be a lack of strong boosting factors in the short term.