3.24 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market is Weak

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market is weak. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the southwest region is 1400-1500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in central China is 1300-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan/ton. The soda ash plant fluctuated slightly, and some enterprises resumed operation, and the supply increased slightly; the poor downstream demand sentiment led to a further decline in spot prices, and the wait-and-see sentiment was strong; the current soda ash spot market transaction was lower than expected, and the order follow-up volume was limited.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On March 24, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1412 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1449 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.63%. The highest intraday price was 1,453 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,403 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1,068,015 lots, down 82,933 lots from the previous month. Today, the price of soda ash futures rose sharply, mainly driven by the sentiment of downstream varieties, and short positions mainly left the market for risk aversion. From a fundamental perspective, the supply-side disturbances have gradually recovered, but with the increase in demand-side prices, the problems of downstream acceptance capacity and demand scale repair still provide strong support for the valuation of soda ash, and the short-term wait-and-see price changes of downstream varieties are the main focus.

Market Forecast

Subsequent soda ash plant maintenance and recovery coexist, soda ash supply will fluctuate at a low level; downstream demand is poor, and the soda ash market is insufficiently driven; it is expected that the soda ash market will be narrowly consolidated in the short term, and attention should still be paid to the subsequent plant dynamics and changes in the downstream procurement rhythm.