4.14 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market is Weak, Local Markets Adjusted Slightly

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market in South China and North China has declined slightly, with a range of 30-50 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1420-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1650 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is 1480-1650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton. The soda ash unit of Tianjin Soda Plant is under maintenance, and the current operation rate has dropped to about 50%. Kunlun Soda Industry has resumed normal production, and the operation of other enterprises is temporarily stable. Today, the terminal purchasing enthusiasm of the soda ash market is not high, the market demand is weak, the consumption end mainly replenishes inventory on demand, and the demand end has not seen a significant increase in volume, and the wait-and-see mood is dominant.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 14, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1,340 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of +1.13%. The highest intraday price was 1,344 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,325 yuan/ton, and the total position was 571,806 lots, down 53,276 lots from the previous month.

Today, the soda ash futures price rebounded slightly with market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, there were individual disturbances on the soda ash supply side, but the overall impact was not significant. The inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches still existed. Although the downstream demand scale still had a certain volume and recovery expectations, the actual demand increase brought by the main contract before delivery was difficult to form a strong concentrated improvement drive for the short-term market. In the short term, the fundamental weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change, but in the short term, we can pay attention to whether there will be a downstream holiday stocking market around the end of the month.

Market Forecast

The soda ash market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Soda ash plants in some regions are undergoing maintenance, but the overall supply of soda ash is loose, inventory remains at a medium-high level, the focus of spot transactions slowly moves downward, the wait-and-see sentiment on the consumer side is strong, and order release is cautious. It is expected that the soda ash market will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.