4.16 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market is Weak

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market maintained a weak operation. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1420-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1450-1600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1480-1600 yuan/ton. Today, the domestic soda ash market is generally stable, and the market transaction activity is not high. Some soda ash units in North China and Southwest China are still in the stage of reducing volume, but the overall market operating rate remains at a high level. Downstream companies are cautious in operation, and the market trading is mainly based on rigid demand, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 16, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1366 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1352 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of -0.81%. The intraday high was 1,370 yuan/ton, the low was 1,351 yuan/ton, and the total position was 874,381 lots, up 71,480 lots from the previous month.

Today's soda ash futures prices fell slightly. From a fundamental perspective, the overall industry operating rate remains high, and the expectation of loose supply has a strong pressure on prices. The demand side still has a certain scale of support, but it is difficult to form a concentrated repair drive in a short time, and the pressure on mid- and upper-stream inventory still exists. In the short term, the weak logic of soda ash itself has not seen obvious signs of improvement. The near-month futures prices fluctuate mainly around the spot delivery cost range. In the future, we can look forward to Boyuan's downstream holiday stocking and macro policy expectations, and then observe whether the demand side can show substantial improvement.

Market forecast

In the short term, the soda ash market may be mainly in a narrow range. If downstream purchases increase or the supply pattern changes, the market may show short-term volatility, and it is necessary to closely track inventory trends and macro policy changes.