4.18 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Prices Weakly Stable

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market price is stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1420-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1480-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in East China is 1300-1500 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1500 yuan/ton. The market trading willingness is light. In May, Shilian Chemical, Huachang Chemical, Jiangsu Jingshen, and Henan Jinshan have maintenance plans. Hubei Shuanghuan's production has basically returned to normal. The downstream performance is still weak, mainly based on rigid demand to replenish inventory. Only a few companies increase purchases moderately when prices are low, and the overall market is in a wait-and-see mood.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 18, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1356 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1324 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of -2.29%. The intraday high was 1,358 yuan/ton, the low was 1,315 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1,014,270 lots, up 80,472 lots month-on-month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures fell sharply, and the near-month will face margin limit, and there is a certain risk of soft forced liquidation on the capital side. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of the industry remains high, and the expectation of loose supply has a strong pressure on prices. The demand side still has a certain scale of support, but it is difficult to form a concentrated repair drive in a short time, and the pressure on mid- and upper-stream inventory still exists. In the short term, the weak logic of soda ash itself has not seen obvious signs of improvement. In the short term, it can be seen whether the downstream May Day holiday stocking and macroeconomic policies at the end of the month can provide a rebound opportunity for emotional resonance.

Market forecast

In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent, and rigid demand is dominant. The soda ash market may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the actual implementation of the May maintenance plan and the progress of the digestion of raw material inventory in the downstream glass industry.