4.2 Daily review of soda ash: the soda ash market is still weak

Soda ash market analysis
Today, the domestic soda ash market is weak, and some prices continue to decline by 50-100 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the southwest region is 1350-1450 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1550 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in central China is 1280-1400 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan/ton; the soda ash market has maintained a weak trend recently, the market transaction is not good, and the price of new orders has continued to decline; the maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed, and the market operation load has gradually increased, but the downstream enterprises are still cautious in purchasing, and enterprises are mostly looking for low-priced sources. In the short term, the price of soda ash may continue to decline in a narrow range.

Futures dynamics
According to Boduoduo data: On April 2, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1388 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1394 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The intraday high was 1,394 yuan/ton, the low was 1,374 yuan/ton, and the total position was 1,063,285 lots, down 29,522 lots from the previous month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures fluctuated narrowly with market sentiment. At present, there is no new disturbance expectation on the supply side of soda ash, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased again. Although the downstream demand scale still has a certain volume and recovery expectations, the actual demand increase before the delivery of the main contract is difficult to form a strong concentrated improvement drive for the short-term market. In the short term, the fundamental weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of soft pressure before the delivery of the main contract. However, in the short term, attention can be paid to whether there will be seasonal improvement on the demand side before and after the Qingming Festival.

Market outlook
Subsequent soda ash maintenance devices will be restored one after another, and the supply of soda ash will hover at a high level; as the Qingming Festival approaches, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong; it is expected that the soda ash market will be in a narrow range in the short term, and attention should still be paid to the subsequent device dynamics and changes in the downstream procurement rhythm.