4.21 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Trends to Weaken

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market is weak, and the price in some regions has been reduced by 20-50 yuan/ton. As of now, the price of light soda ash in North China is 1400-1550 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1480-1550 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in East China is 1300-1480 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1420-1500 yuan/ton. Today, the prices of light soda ash and heavy soda ash are generally under pressure, the market transaction situation is not good, and the downstream willingness to take goods is weak, mostly for rigid demand to replenish inventory. The overall market is dominated by narrow fluctuations, and low-price transactions are still the mainstream.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 21, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1321 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The highest intraday price was 1,348 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,318 yuan/ton, and the total position was 998,078 lots, down 16,192 lots from the previous month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures bottomed out and rebounded, and short-selling funds mainly reduced their positions to realize profits as the market environment changed. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of the industry remained high, and the expectation of loose supply had a strong pressure on prices. However, there are still maintenance plans for large factories in May, which will give the market certain expected support before the actual losses cannot be falsified. The demand side still has support for a certain scale of repair, but given the general profit level of the downstream, it is mostly necessary to maintain the rigid demand for goods, and it is difficult to form a concentrated repair drive in a short time, and the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches still exists. In the short term, the weak logic of soda ash itself has not seen obvious signs of improvement, but in the short term, it can be seen whether the downstream May Day holiday stocking and macroeconomic policies at the end of the month can provide a rebound opportunity for emotional resonance.

Market Forecast

In the short term, the weak market situation is difficult to change, and some companies are under great inventory pressure. If inventory continues to accumulate, short-term destocking still needs to rely on price cuts or flexible order strategies. It is necessary to focus on the progress of the resumption of production of maintenance equipment, the rhythm of downstream industry replenishment, and changes in futures market sentiment.