4.23 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Consolidated, Manufacturers Strongly Determined to Stabilize Prices

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market maintained a consolidation operation. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1400-1600 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is 1480-1620 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, Southern Alkali Industry has stopped for maintenance as planned, which has a certain impact on the regional supply. Some companies have preliminarily arranged maintenance plans in May, and the overall start-up of other devices in the market has not changed much; the demand side is relatively stable, and the main downstream industries maintain a normal production rhythm, but the procurement strategy is generally cautious, mostly based on on-demand procurement, and tends to choose low-priced sources; the current domestic soda ash market price continues to be under pressure, and the delivery prices of most manufacturers have approached or even fallen below the cost line. The willingness of manufacturers to maintain prices has increased significantly. From the market feedback, although manufacturers generally try to maintain stable quotations, there is still a certain bargaining space in actual transactions.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 23, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 was 1,315 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 1,373 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.39%. The highest intraday price was 1,375 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,313 yuan/ton, and the total position was 994,889 lots, down 74,101 lots from the previous month.

Today's soda ash futures prices rebounded sharply, mainly because of market rumors that a large number of additional maintenance plans would be added in the future, and the macro-level overseas tariff bearish sentiment showed signs of easing, and a large number of short-selling funds left the market mainly for risk aversion. In the short term, the story of supply maintenance cannot be falsified, which may form a continuous support for futures prices, and there is also a pre-holiday stocking market on the demand side. Market sentiment may remain strong, but given that the main logic of soda ash's own weak fundamentals has not been broken, the market's confidence in the game is still concerned. In the future, attention will be paid to the actual maintenance losses and whether important meetings can provide policy guidance to continue the further recovery of market sentiment.

Market Forecast

From the perspective of market operation, in the absence of significant changes in the supply and demand fundamentals, it is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is necessary to focus on changes in the inventory of production enterprises, potential production cuts, and changes in the operating rate of the downstream glass industry.