4.7 Daily Review of Soda Ash: The soda ash market is weak and consolidating, and enterprises are cautious in purchasing

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market is weak and consolidating, and the price in the northwest region has been slightly reduced. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the northwest region is 1080-1150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1080-1150 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in central China is 1280-1400 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan/ton; the soda ash market has been sluggish and weak recently, and the market transaction atmosphere is not good. The prices of some companies have been slightly adjusted; some companies in the north plan to reduce production tomorrow, and the overall start-up of other devices in the market has not changed much; the downstream companies of soda ash are more cautious in purchasing, and the companies maintain rigid demand.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 7, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1345 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1358 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of -2.23%. The intraday high was 1,376 yuan/ton, the low was 1,327 yuan/ton, and the total position was 894,620 lots, down 113,477 lots from the previous month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures opened sharply lower and then fluctuated, mainly due to the global panic selling pressure caused by the further fermentation of tariff issues such as the United States during the holiday period. However, given that soda ash itself is not actually affected by it, the emotional impact is relatively limited. From a fundamental perspective, there is no new disturbance expectation on the supply side of soda ash at present, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased again. Although the downstream demand scale still has a certain volume and recovery expectations, the actual demand increase brought by the main contract before delivery is difficult to form a strong concentrated improvement drive for the short-term market. In the short term, the fundamental weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of soft pressure before the delivery of the main contract. However, in the short term, attention can be paid to whether there will be seasonal improvements on the demand side.

Market Forecast

There are not many companies with maintenance plans in the market recently, and the soda ash production is still high. The market supply and demand are both weak. Companies are more cautious, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. There is insufficient confidence in the market outlook. The soda ash price is expected to continue to weaken in a narrow range.