4.9 Soda Ash Daily Review: Soda Ash Market Weakens, Prices Slightly Declined in Some Regions

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market price is basically stable, and the price in Northeast China has been slightly adjusted. As of now, the ex-factory price of light soda ash in Northeast China is 1480-1600 yuan/ton, and the delivery price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1600 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is 1080-1150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1080-1150 yuan/ton; the operation of soda ash supply equipment is relatively stable overall, and some manufacturers have accumulated inventory. It is difficult to have an incremental expectation of downstream market demand. The purchase is mainly based on rigid demand. The market supply and demand relationship is mismatched. In addition, the recent market has been affected by the trade war, and commodities have fallen across the board. The market sentiment is weak, and the price of soda ash is still weak.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 9, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1323 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1312 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of -2.52%. The intraday high was 1,328 yuan/ton, the low was 1,266 yuan/ton, and the total position was 714,341 lots, down 146,493 lots from the previous month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures bottomed out and rebounded as the market sentiment bottomed out, mainly due to the panic selling pressure caused by the implementation of further tariffs by the United States. As the panic was released, the market sentiment was restored immediately, given that the worst-case scenario of the short-term tariff issue had basically been implemented. From a fundamental perspective, there is no new disturbance expectation on the supply side of soda ash at present, and the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase. Although the downstream demand scale still has a certain volume and recovery expectations, the actual demand increase brought by the main contract before delivery is difficult to form a strong concentrated improvement drive for the short-term market. In the short term, the fundamental weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of soft pressure before the delivery of the main contract. However, in the short term, attention can be paid to whether there will be seasonal improvement on the demand side, and whether there will be policy repair expectations after the macro sentiment stabilizes.

Market Forecast

There are not many companies with maintenance plans in the market recently. Only a few companies have changed their equipment operation. The market operation is running at a high level. Both supply and demand are weak. Companies are more cautious and purchasing sentiment is weak. There is insufficient confidence in the market outlook. The price of soda ash is expected to continue to weaken in a narrow range.