Soda Ash Daily Review: Some prices in the soda ash market are weak and downward

Soda ash market analysis

Today, the domestic soda ash market remained weak and stable, with prices in some regions adjusted narrowly. As of now, the price of light soda ash in the northwest region is 1050-1150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1060-1150 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in South China is 1480-1650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1550-1650 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate has remained high recently, and the number of companies undergoing maintenance and reducing production is limited. The market supply is relatively abundant, but the demand of downstream companies is still weak. Most of them are cautious and wait-and-see, maintaining low-price just-needed purchases. The soda ash market maintains a weak trend, the overall transaction performance is light, and the market trading atmosphere is poor.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduoduo data: On April 10, the opening price of the main soda ash contract SA2505 was 1307 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1321 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of +1.30%. The intraday high was 1,347 yuan/ton, the low was 1,305 yuan/ton, and the total position was 666,863 lots, down 47,478 lots from the previous month.

Today, the price of soda ash futures rebounded slightly with market sentiment, mainly due to the emotional repair of Trump's announcement last night that tariffs on countries that did not retaliate were suspended. However, at noon, as the news of the expansion of the downstream glass delivery warehouse led to long funds avoiding risks, soda ash fell slightly. From a fundamental perspective, there is no new disturbance expectation on the supply side of soda ash at present, and the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase. Although the downstream demand scale still has a certain volume and recovery expectations, the actual demand increase brought by the main contract delivery is difficult to form a strong concentrated improvement drive for the short-term market. In the short term, the fundamental weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change, and it is necessary to guard against the risk of soft pressure before the delivery of the main contract. However, the short-term futures price is basically flat with the spot, and it is temporarily maintained to fluctuate, waiting to see whether the policy repair expectations will appear after the subsequent macro sentiment stabilizes.

Market Forecast

In the short term, the soda ash market will continue to maintain a pattern of oversupply, and some companies still have inventory pressure. It is difficult to increase the volume significantly in the short term. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is still mainly replenishing inventory on demand. Therefore, it is expected that the soda ash price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and the market transaction will still be dominated by low-priced rigid demand.